Argentina vs Switzerland: prediction & betting odds 12 July 2026

Odds Overview

Argentina are clear favourites for this quarter-final: their win is priced at around 1.73, the draw at 3.60, and a Switzerland victory is already out at 5.60. That gap is one of the biggest at the quarter-final stage. The 2.5-goal total leans towards the under: Under is around 1.71 against 2.27 for Over, which points to expectations of a tight game. The odds on both teams to score are skewed towards No, at 1.70 against 2.15 for Yes. The bookmakers do not have much faith in a Switzerland goal. Argentina's handicap (-1) is priced at 2.40, so bookmakers are not ruling out a win by two or more goals.

Why Argentina Are Favourites for the Match

The gap in the match-result odds is striking - from 1.70 for a South American win to 5.60 for Switzerland's success, and the tournament statistics back that up.

• Argentina have not lost a single match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and share first place for goals per game (2.8) with France.

• Switzerland had to get through a penalty shootout in the Round of 16 against Colombia (0:0, 4:3 on penalties) - a sign of problems with finishing in decisive moments.

• Argentina lead the tournament for accurate passes per game (611), underlining Scaloni's team's possession control and territorial advantage.

• La Albiceleste have a noticeably more expensive squad - 807.5 million euros against 332.5 million. In addition, Switzerland's most valuable player, Johan Manzambi (50 million), is injured and was not in the squad for the match against Colombia.

Form and Line-up Argentina

For the second knockout round in a row, Messi and his team-mates have worried their supporters. Against Cape Verde (3:2 after extra time), Scaloni's team controlled the game but made defensive mistakes, allowing the underdogs to come back. Against Egypt it was the opposite: Argentina were 0:2 down by the 78th minute. Messi's genius decided everything: Leo produced a goal and an assist in the space of four minutes, before Fernandez sealed it with a counter-attacking goal. The South Americans deserved to reach the quarter-finals, but their form clearly leaves opponents with chances.

Argentina key numbers:

• Second at the 2026 FIFA World Cup for expected goals (10.8). Only Brazil have accumulated more (12).

• Argentina are in the tournament's top six for big chances missed - 11.

• No one apart from Messi has scored more than one goal (8+1). Leo is the top scorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Probable Argentina line-up (4-4-2): Emiliano Martinez - Nicolas Tagliafico, Lisandro Martinez, Cristian Romero, Nahuel Molina - Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernandez, Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul - Julian Alvarez, Lionel Messi.

Form and Line-up Switzerland

After an unconvincing group-stage performance, where they conceded all three goals in the final 20 minutes of matches, Switzerland sharply improved defensively. They allowed only 1.85 xGA across 210 minutes of matches against Algeria and Colombia. Gregor Kobel made five saves in the last two rounds and also kept out the decisive attempt in the Round of 16 penalty shootout. In that match, the Borussia Dortmund goalkeeper was named player of the match.

Switzerland key numbers:

• Only Switzerland, France and Spain have not conceded in the knockout rounds.

• Switzerland have accumulated 9.20 xG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup - the worst figure among the quarter-finalists after Morocco (8.30).

• Top scorer Johan Manzambi (3+2) is out through injury.

Probable Switzerland line-up (4-2-3-1): Gregor Kobel - Ricardo Rodriguez, Manuel Akanji, Nico Elvedi, Denis Zakaria - Granit Xhaka, Remo Freuler - Dan Ndoye, Ardon Jashari, Fabian Rieder - Breel Embolo.

Absentees: Michel Aebischer, Luca Jaquez, Johan Manzambi (all injured).

The Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 4.7%). The average line: Argentina - 1.72, draw - 3.54, Switzerland - 5.47.

After removing the margin, Argentina's chances of reaching the semi-finals are estimated at around 56%, the draw at 27%, and Switzerland's success at only 17%. This is one of the most clear-cut matches at this stage of the tournament.

Alternative Bets

Argentina handicap (-1) - 2.40: their clear favourite status and Scaloni's team's high scoring rate make a win by two goals a realistic scenario.

Both teams to score - No - 1.70: the Swiss defence are among the strongest at the tournament, this will not be the easiest outing for Argentina, and a goal for the underdogs is even harder to believe in.

Under 2.5 goals - 1.71: Switzerland have still not conceded in this knockout stage. Argentina also kept clean sheets in the group stage, where Algeria and Austria failed to score against them.

Switzerland individual total under 1.5 - 1.15: bookmakers clearly do not believe in two or more Swiss goals, making this a good accumulator option.

Total Goals Prediction

The line leans towards the under - Switzerland's defensive cohesion outweighs Argentina's attacking potential. The 2-goal total is almost evenly priced, leaving room for different match scenarios.

Handicap Prediction

Argentina Draw No Bet at 1.23 is the basic option given their clear favourite status. The handicap (-1) at 2.40 looks far more interesting given their goalscoring potential and Switzerland's relatively weak scoring output in matches against top national teams.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The line here is not straightforward: Yes is priced at 2.15 and No at 1.70, with the edge on the second option. Switzerland do not concede many, but Argentina's individual quality and squad depth mean they can score even against opponents who sit deep. At the same time, a clean-sheet win for the favourites looks a realistic scenario, so Both teams to score - No is my main position.

Double Chance Prediction

1X (Argentina not to lose) at 1.16 is practically a 100% position given their favourite status. X2 (Switzerland not to lose) at 2.15 is an option for those who believe in the resilience of the Swiss defence over the full match.

Individual Total Prediction

Argentina individual total (1.5) is 2.00 against 1.75 on the under - bookmakers expect a productive game from the reigning world champions and one of the leaders for expected goals. The South Americans have scored 2+ goals in every match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Argentina Individual Total

Switzerland's individual total looks much more modest: under 1 is priced at just 1.32, reflecting the market's low expectations of the Swiss attack without the injured Johan Manzambi.

Switzerland Individual Total

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely scenario according to the market is a narrow 1:0 Argentina win at 5.20, which makes sense given Switzerland's strong defence and the South Americans' favourite status. Next comes a 1:1 draw at 6.00 and a 2:1 win for the hosts at 7.80.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on Sunday, 12 July 2026, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City at 02:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Match Referee

João Pinheiro (Portugal)

Matches – 10 (International matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.9;
Matches with a red card – 4 of 10;
Matches with a penalty – 5 of 10.