United States vs Belgium: prediction & betting odds 7 July 2026

Why There Is No Favourite in the Match

The range of odds on the outcome is so narrow (2.60-2.70 for the United States against 2.65-2.71 for Belgium) that it is incorrect to talk about a favourite - the market rates the teams' chances as virtually equal.

• The United States came through the group stage with one defeat - against Turkey (2:3), while Belgium failed to win twice - draws with Egypt (1:1) and Iran (0:0).

• The Belgian squad is noticeably more expensive (547.5 million euros against 385.7). However, Pochettino's team are in better current form - they have seven wins in 13 matches since September.

• In attacking terms, the two teams showed different levels: United States scored confidently against Paraguay (4:1) and Australia (2:0), while Belgium did so against New Zealand (5:1), but against more disciplined opponents they were limited to one goal.

Form and Line-up USA

The host teams at the 2026 World Cup are not letting their supporters down — the United States have been no exception. Like Mexico and Canada, the home side progressed from the round of 32, confidently beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2:0. Pochettino’s team allowed only 0.25 xGA, although they had fewer shots (8–10). The United States played the final half-hour with a man down, and they avoided a late onslaught from their opponents thanks to Tillman’s free-kick goal — without it, the pressure would have increased.

Key Numbers for USA:

• The Americans are overperforming in front of goal. They have scored eight times at the 2026 World Cup from 4.62 xG (15th-best figure).

• The United States' top scorer Balogun (three goals) is unavailable because of a red card.

• The United States have kept only two clean sheets in their last 18 matches.

Probable USA line-up

(4-3-3): Matt Freese - Antonee Robinson, Tim Ream, Chris Richards, Alex Freeman - Malik Tillman, Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie - Christian Pulisic, Ricardo Pepi, Sergino Dest.

Absentees: Folarin Balogun (suspension).

Form and Line-up Belgium

The Red Devils did not impress in the group stage, and the opening hour against Senegal was taking Belgium towards a logical exit from the 2026 World Cup. Garcia's substitutions changed everything: Lukaku once again refreshed the team's attack, and the Belgians came back from 0:2 thanks to two goals after the 85th minute. Interestingly, Tielemans's goal in extra time became the latest in World Cup history - the Aston Villa midfielder converted a penalty in the 125th minute (3:2 after extra time).

Key Numbers for Belgium:

• The Red Devils have the highest number of touches in the opposition box at the tournament (189).

• Belgium are unbeaten in 17 matches in a row. This run began back in March 2025.

• Belgium are fairly disciplined - they have only four yellow cards at the 2026 World Cup.

Probable Belgium line-up

(4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois - Maxim De Cuyper, Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele, Timothy Castagne - Hans Vanaken, Youri Tielemans - Jeremy Doku, Kevin De Bruyne, Leandro Trossard - Charles De Ketelaere.

Team Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~4.5%). Average line: the United States - 2.65, draw - 3.42, Belgium - 2.67.

After removing the margin, the teams' chances are virtually identical - 36% for each side, with the draw at 28%. This is one of the most even matches of the playoff stage at the 2026 World Cup.

Alternative Bets

• United States Draw No Bet / Belgium Draw No Bet – around 1.90: an insured bet on either team to win, a logical alternative in a market where the teams are evenly matched.

• Both Teams to Score – Yes – 1.62–1.66: both teams scored in most of their group-stage matches, and the market slightly favours goals at both ends.

• Double Chance – 1X (United States not to lose) – 1.48: a safer option for those backing the home advantage.

• Under 2.5 Goals – 1.98–2.10: the knockout nature of the match and the evenly matched squads traditionally point towards a low-scoring game.

Total Goals Prediction

The 2.5 line is almost at parity with a slight tilt towards Over, while the lower line of 2 is clearly shifted towards Under - the market is unsure about an abundance of goals in a match between two evenly matched teams in the round of 16. The bet on Under 2.5 goals at 1.98-2.10 looks a logical choice for those expecting a cautious, tight playoff scenario.

Handicap Prediction

Draw No Bet on either team is priced the same (around 1.90) - a telling confirmation that the market sees no advantage for either side. United States (+1) at 1.20 is almost risk-free insurance for those who want to avoid the draw outcome without overpaying.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Both teams to score - Yes is priced at 1.62-1.66 against 2.20-2.30 for No - the market gives moderate preference to a scoring scenario. Both teams scored in most of their group-stage matches, which supports the choice in favour of Yes.

Double Chance Prediction

Double chance 1X (United States not to lose) and X2 (Belgium not to lose) cost almost the same - 1.48 against 1.48-1.50, once again underlining the balance of power in this pair.

Individual Total Prediction

United States Over/Under 1.5 Goals is priced almost evenly, with Over at 1.60 and Under at 2.25, suggesting the market sees no clear attacking edge for the hosts.

USA Individual Total

Belgium's individual total mirrors the hosts' figures - the market does not single out the more attacking of the two teams.

Belgium Individual Total

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely outcome is a 1:1 draw at 5.60, which looks logical for a match with evenly matched sides. Narrow wins for either team are also among the market favourites: 1:0 United States at 8.80, 0:1 Belgium at 9.00.

When and Where to Watch

The match will start on Tuesday, 7 July 2026, at Lumen Field in Seattle at 01:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Adham Makhadmeh (Jordan) 

Matches – 16 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 3,8;

Matches with a straight red card – 2 out of 16;

Matches with a penalty – 4 out of 16.