France vs Morocco: prediction & betting odds 9 July 2026

Why France Are Favourites

Bookmakers see France as clear favourites: a win in regular time is priced at around 1.60, their qualification for the semi-final at 1.27, while a Morocco win is at 6.30 and their qualification at 3.80. This advantage for the favourites is explained by several key factors.

• Attacking power. France have scored 14 goals in five matches, with 11 of them coming from Mbappe (seven) and Dembele (four).

• Experience and status. France are the reigning World Cup runners-up, having played in the 2022 World Cup final.

• Squad depth. Deschamps has world-class players throughout his squad, whereas after losing Saibari, Morocco do not have a truly high-quality centre-forward.

• Head-to-head. France beat Morocco without much trouble at the last World Cup (2:0).

Form and Line-up France

France come into the quarter-final with no hint of crisis: the team won their group with an aggregate score of 10:2 (Senegal 3:1, Iraq 3:0, Norway 4:1), thrashed Sweden 3:0 in the round of 32, and in the round of 16 got past Paraguay 1:0 – Mbappe scoring from the spot – without a thrashing but with plenty of assurance.

Key Numbers France:

• Have scored in 18 consecutive matches.

• Against African national teams – 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 10 meetings.

• Have conceded only 2 goals in 5 World Cup matches.

Probable France line-up (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan – Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, William Saliba, Lucas Digne – Manu Kone, Adrien Rabiot – Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola – Kylian Mbappe.

Form and Line-up Morocco

Morocco have reached the quarter-finals for the second tournament in a row. The path has not been easy: in the group they recorded two wins and a draw (1:1 with Brazil, 1:0 against Scotland and 4:2 versus Haiti), in the round of 32 the Africans knocked out the Netherlands on penalties (1:1, 3:2), and in the round of 16 they thrashed tournament hosts Canada 3:0 (a goal from Rahimi and a brace from Ounahi).

Key Numbers Morocco:

• Have scored in 11 matches in a row.

• In their last 10 meetings against European national teams – 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats.

• Have conceded at least 1 goal in 4 of their last 6 games.

Probable Morocco line-up (4-2-3-1): Yassine Bounou – Achraf Hakimi, Issa Diop, Redouane Hallal, Noussair Mazraoui – Ayyoub Bouaddi, Neil El Aynaoui – Brahim Diaz, Azzedine Ounahi, Bilal El Khannouss – Sofiane Rahimi.

Absentees: Ismael Saibari (thigh injury, doubtful).

Chances of the Teams

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 5%):

France to qualify for the semi-final is at 1.27 (around a 75% chance), Morocco to qualify at 3.80 (~25%). The bookmakers have made France clear favourites with a probability of winning in regular time of about 58% – noticeably higher than the average for favourites in the knockout phase at this tournament.

Alternative Bets

• Double chance 1X (France not to lose) – 1.12: virtually a 100% option given the difference in class.

• France (-1) – 2.00: the most balanced option given the quality of the squad and freshness on the bench.

• Over 2.5 goals – 2.00: France usually settle games before the interval and then add a second or third on the counter.

• Both teams to score – No – 1.80: France have kept three clean sheets in five World Cup matches, and Morocco will be without their main goalscorer Saibari.

Total Goals Prediction

France have scored in every match at the tournament (14 goals in five games), but against Morocco's low block their scoring output usually drops – as we can see from the Africans' matches at this World Cup.

Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 is the main option: France usually score before the break and in the second half add another couple of goals. Under 3.5 goals at 1.30 is a conservative alternative if France switch into energy-saving mode straight after the second goal.

Handicap Prediction

France (-1) at 2.00 looks the optimal option, which should at least bring a refund. Morocco (+1) is a bet on the Africans not losing by more than one goal. This is an idea for those expecting a scrappy game similar to the one against the Netherlands.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Yes is 1.95 (~40% probability), No is 1.80 (~60%). France have allowed just 3.62 xGA and conceded only two goals, while Morocco have scored more than once in only two games and struggle far more against top opposition.

Double Chance Prediction

1X is practically the only option given the gap in class, but because of the low odds it is mainly suitable for accumulators. X2 at 2.35 is a bet on Morocco not losing in regular time (for those who believe in another upset).

Individual Total Prediction

For this match the bookmakers have set the following individual totals: France – 1.5 goals, Morocco – 0.5 goals.

France Individual Total

Bookmakers have little doubt that France will score, and at least two goals from the Tricolores is already more likely than just one.

Morocco Individual Total

As for Morocco, the bookmakers believe this team is about equally likely either to score once or not score at all.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely scenarios:

2:0 is the base case: a first-half goal and a second on the counter late on. France have scored at least twice in four of their five matches at the tournament. 1:0 is if France settle for a minimal advantage and continue to save energy before the semi-final. 2:1 is if Morocco grab a consolation goal from a set piece or a defensive mistake by France. 1:1 is the least likely scoreline, but this option cannot be ruled out if the Africans score first and then shut up shop effectively.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on Thursday, 9 July 2026 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough (USA) at 21:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Facundo Tello (Argentina) 

Matches – 16 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 24;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4,5;

Matches with a straight red card – 6 out of 16;

Matches with a penalty – 8 out of 16.