Norway vs England: prediction & betting odds 11 July 2026

Why England Are Match Favourites

The bookmakers are unanimous in their assessment of the chances: the gap in the odds for England and Norway to win is one of the most noticeable at this stage of the tournament.

• Norway have conceded in every match at the 2026 World Cup, while England have not lost at the tournament and have kept two clean sheets.

• Norway failed in their only match against a team from the top five contenders for the world title, losing to France (1:4).

• England have not lost a competitive match under Tuchel. Their last setback came in autumn 2024.

• The Three Lions' squad is 1.5 times more valuable (1.36 billion euros versus 590 million).

Form and Line-up Norway

Norway still have not eliminated their main vulnerability - basic defensive errors. Against Brazil (1:2), the team twice allowed their opponents to shoot from the penalty spot, and Solbakken's side were fortunate that Nyland was in excellent form, making four saves. Of course, the bet on Haaland continues to work smoothly: the Manchester City forward has scored in all four 2026 World Cup matches in which he has played. However, the counter-attacking style is becoming increasingly predictable, and Brazil created enough chances to deserve to take the match into extra time.

Norway Key Numbers:

• The team have kept only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches.

• Norway have allowed 8.10 xGA at the 2026 World Cup, the worst figure among the quarter-finalists.

• Both teams to score - Yes has landed in all seven matches involving Norway since the June friendlies.

Probable Norway line-up (4-3-3): Orjan Nyland - David Moller Wolfe, Torbjorn Heggem, Kristoffer Ajer, Julian Ryerson - Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, Martin Odegaard - Antonio Nusa, Erling Haaland, Alexander Sorloth

Form and Line-up England

England came through a relatively easy group stage, where the team were considered clear favourites in every match, and continued to perform confidently in the knockout rounds. The meetings with DR Congo (2:1) and Mexico (3:2) were tense, but the favourites controlled the flow of both games for long spells.

The match against Mexico was especially revealing: even after Quansah was sent off, England did not lose composure and quickly converted a penalty. In those circumstances, the 2026 World Cup hosts could hardly count on a comeback, as Tuchel's team calmly protected their advantage.

England Key Numbers:

• The highest number of big chances at the 2026 World Cup (23).

• Kane and Bellingham are in the top six scorers at the tournament. Together, they have produced 10+2.

• England have suffered only one defeat in the past year - 0:1 in a March friendly against Japan.

Probable England line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford - Nico O'Reilly, Marc Guehi, Ezri Konsa, Djed Spence - Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice - Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka - Harry Kane

Absentees: Jarell Quansah (suspension), Jordan Henderson (injury)

Team Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 4.3%). Average line: Norway - 4.14, draw - 3.71, England - 1.88.

After removing the margin, an England win is estimated at around 51%, the draw at 26% and a Norway success at 23%. The gap is significant, but Norway, who showed character against Brazil, retain a real chance of another shock.

Alternative Bets

• England Draw No Bet - 1.38: a win means a winning bet, a draw means a refund, a reasonable safety option given their clear favourite status.

• Both teams to score - Yes - 1.68: both national teams have scored regularly throughout the tournament, including Norway's high-scoring win over Brazil and England's victory over Croatia.

• Double chance 1X (Norway not to lose) - 1.89: an option for those expecting stubborn resistance from Norway.

• Under 2.5 - 1.75: the knockout status of the match and the teams' caution could keep the overall scoring level down.

Total Goals Prediction

The line leans towards the under on all key options, as the knockout stage traditionally reduces scoring even for attacking teams. Under 2.5 at 1.75 looks like a logical baseline position.

Handicap Prediction

England Draw No Bet at 1.37 is a straightforward option for those who believe in a favourite win but do not think it will be easy. Norway (+1.5) at 1.32 is comfortable insurance for those expecting the team to put up a stubborn fight even in defeat.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The edge is with Yes: 1.68 against 2.12 for No. Both national teams have shown they can find a route to goal even in difficult matches - Norway scored twice against Brazil, while England put four past Croatia in the group. Both teams to score - Yes looks like a logical choice, despite England's favourite status.

Double Chance Prediction

Double chance 1X (Norway not to lose) at 1.95 is an option for those who believe in Norway's resilience and strong form; X2 (England not to lose) at 1.23 is a conservative position based on favourite status.

Individual Total Prediction

Norway's individual total (1) is priced almost evenly - 1.95 versus 1.80, reflecting uncertainty over the team's attacking potential against a solid England defence.

Norway Individual Total

England's individual total (1.5) at 1.85 is almost level, but their favourite status and scoring output in the group stage and knockout rounds point towards the over.

England Individual Total

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely outcome is 1:1 at 6.00, reflecting the strong possibility of a draw despite England's favourite status. Among the winning scenarios, narrow victories for each team stand out: 1:0 to England and 2:1 to Norway, both priced at 7.60.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on Sunday, 12 July 2026, at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami at 22:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Match Referee

Clément Turpin (France)

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match – 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.4;
Matches with a red card – 3 of 8;
Matches with a penalty – 3 of 8.