Australia vs Egypt: prediction & betting odds 3 July 2026

Why There Is No Favourite in the Match

Egypt have a slight edge, but odds around 2.50 clearly do not mark them out as strong favourites. Opta gives the Pharaohs only around a 54% chance of reaching the round of 16. The draw is priced at 2.90, while an Australia win is around 3.30-3.40.

• Despite Mohamed Salah starting five matches across the last two World Cups (2018, 2026), Egypt have won only one of them.

• The teams are neighbours in the FIFA ranking: Australia are 27th, Egypt 29th.

• Egypt's chances are higher, but they are reduced by uncertainty over five players, including leaders, who have injuries of varying severity.

Form and Line-up Australia

Australia began the tournament with a clean-sheet match, beating Turkiye 2:0, and ended it with one too, drawing 0:0 with Paraguay. Alongside Cape Verde, the home team became an almost unique team to finish second while scoring only two goals. Both of them came in one match. The defeat to the United States confirmed that the Socceroos follow a low-scoring pattern, with every match going under 2.5 goals. They also play reactively: only against Paraguay did they have to play on the front foot with 56% possession.

Key Numbers for Australia:

• Australia are 36th among teams at the tournament for possession (40.8%).

• They are in the same position for accurate passes in the opposition final third (61.1%), while they made only 278 passes in total during the group stage.

• The Socceroos' last five matches have ended with Under 2.5 goals winning.

Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Patrick Beach - Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess - Jordan Bos, Aiden O'Neill, Jackson Irvine, Aziz Behich - Connor Metcalfe, Nestory Irankunda - Mohamed Toure.

Absentees: Jacob Italiano (injured).

Form and Line-up Egypt

Egypt have avoided defeat in the World Cup group stage for the first time in history and finished second with five points, behind Belgium only on goal difference after drawing with them 1:1. In each of the three rounds, Hossam Hassan's team conceded once, and every game landed the Both teams to score - Yes option. Despite finishing second and coming through the group, the Pharaohs recovered the ball more often (20.3) than Australia (16.0). Egypt have three injured players in the squad, including Mohamed Salah.

Key Numbers for Egypt:

• Egypt conceded 1.56 goals fewer than expected according to xGA.

• Egypt average 2 yellow cards per game at the World Cup.

• Egypt are 13th for shots on goal even taking into account several knockout matches (48), but only 10.42% were converted.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mostafa Shobeir - Mohamed Hany, Yasser Ibrahim, Ramy Rabia, Karim Hafez - Mohanad Lasheen, Mahmoud Saber - Emam Ashour, Mohamed Salah, Mahmoud Trezeguet - Omar Marmoush.

Absentees: Ahmed Fatouh, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Mohamed Salah (all doubtful).

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~4.2%). The average line is as follows: Australia 3.52, draw 3.02, Egypt 2.60.

But after removing the margin, the situation remains the same: there is not a single outcome that even passes the halfway mark. Just over 40% believe in Egypt's success, so extra time will most likely be needed.

Alternative Bets

• Under 2.5 goals - 1.43: Australia failed to score in two of their three matches.

• Both teams to score - No - 1.62: again, Australia gave the United States and Paraguay goalkeepers clean sheets.

• Egypt Draw No Bet - 1.65: an away win, with a refund in the event of a draw.

• Draw - 2.90: the market assesses this as an evenly matched game with a high chance of X.

• Egypt to score - 1.40: the Pharaohs scored in every group-stage match.

Total Goals Prediction

The market is clearly on the under. If you want to take a risk, it is better to choose Over 2 goals, as you can get a refund.

Given that five of the teams' combined six matches have gone under 2.5 goals, the goals situation is clear.

Handicap Prediction

It only makes sense to bet on a handicap if it is negative. The positive one is close to evens within the margin of error. The low prices on the draw also explain the state of play.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Both teams to score - No is priced noticeably higher (1.62) than Yes (2.20), because Australia scored only twice from counter-attacks when they played entirely reactively against Turkiye. Here, Egypt are unlikely to fully want or be able to control the game.

Double Chance Prediction

Here, the dependence on Egypt's slight advantage in chances remains. Any of the options will allow you to win a little more than usual, but at the same time it also carries more risk.

Individual Total Prediction

For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals, which can be considered: Australia 0.5 goals, Egypt 1.5 goals.

Australia Individual Total

Australia over 1.5 goals at 3.60 is already something excessive for the Australians. Australia under 1 goal is much closer to them.

Egypt Individual Total

Egypt under 0.5 goals at 2.75 is pure disrespect to Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush.

Correct Score Prediction

The options for the most realistic score show that there is no need to count on over goals here.

When and Where to Watch

The match will start on Wednesday, 3 July 2026, at 19:00 BST at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match

Gustavo Tejera (Uruguay)

Matches – 17 (International matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 4.2;
Matches with a red card – 0 of 17;
Matches with a penalty – 1 of 17.