England vs DR Congo: prediction & betting odds 1 July 2026

Why England Are Favourites

Bookmakers regard England as one of the main contenders for the title. A final appearance is well within reach. A home win is priced at 1.25–1.35, the draw at 5.20–5.80, and a Congo victory at 11.00–13.00.

• One of the best generations of footballers has emerged on English soil: four players who won the last two European Under-21 Championships have joined this squad and are starting regularly – Anthony Gordon, Noni Madueke, Jarell Quansah, Elliot Anderson. Plus back-up goalkeeper James Trafford.

• DR Congo finished third in group K with four points; England were group winners.

• Across the last three World Cups, including this one, England have conceded just one goal in three matches against African teams.

• DR Congo hit the target a total of three times in their games against Portugal and Colombia.

• The sides have never met before, but the difference in FIFA rankings (England – 4th place, DR Congo – 46th) is reflected in the odds.

Form and Line-up England

England won group L: a comprehensive victory over Croatia (4:2), a goalless draw with Ghana (0:0) and a win against Panama (2:0). The team line up in a 4-2-3-1 under Thomas Tuchel, with Kane as the central striker and Bellingham just behind. Against Panama both goals came in the second half – Bellingham in the 62nd minute and Kane in the 67th. In the match with Ghana the team dominated (79% possession, 19 shots) but failed to take their chances.

Key numbers for England:

• 22 shots in the World Cup 2026 match against Croatia – more than in any other game in group L.

• On average they had 8 corners in the group stage and at least 7 in any one match.

• They scored slightly fewer goals (–0.12) than expected by xG. Among the main favourites only Spain performed worse.

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in 2 of the last 5 matches; both teams to score – Yes in 1 of 5; England (-1.5) in 3 of 5; double chance (1X) in 5 of 5.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford – Djed Spence, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, Nico O'Reilly – Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson – Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Marcus Rashford – Harry Kane

Absentees: Reece James (injury), Jarell Quansah (doubtful)

Form and Line-up DR Congo

DR Congo under Sebastien Desabre reached the playoffs by finishing third in group K. They did so thanks to a draw with Portugal (1:1), a defeat by Colombia (0:1) and a victory over Uzbekistan (3:1). They finished top among the third-placed teams in the group stage. In the decisive match the Leopards came from behind after an early opener from Shomurodov (10th minute): Wissa from the penalty spot (68th minute) and again in the opening seconds of stoppage time (91st minute), plus Mayele (76th minute), delivered a historic win and a place in the knockout rounds.

Key numbers for DR Congo:

• Yoane Wissa has scored 3 goals in 3 matches at the 2026 World Cup (a header, a penalty and a goal in stoppage time).

• 19 shots in the match against Uzbekistan – a team record at the tournament.

• 3 goals scored in the second half against Uzbekistan (from the 68th to the 91st minute).

• Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 of 3 group games; both teams to score – Yes in 2 of 3; Congo (+1.5) in 3 of 3; Congo double chance (X2) in 2 of 3.

Probable line-up (5-3-2): Lionel Mpasi – Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Axel Tuanzebe, Chancel Mbemba, Steve Kapuadi, Arthur Masuaku – Samuel Moutoussamy, Noah Sadiki, Nathanael Mbuku – Yoane Wissa, Cedric Bakambu

Teams’ Chances

Let us convert the odds into implied probabilities and remove the built-in margin (about 5%). The average line is: England 1.27, draw 5.50, Congo 12.00.

After removing the margin, an England win is estimated at roughly 74.8%, the draw at 17.3% and a DR Congo success at 7.9%. The price on the favourite is so low that for a single bet it makes more sense to look at handicaps.

Alternative Bets

• Under 2.5 goals – 1.80–1.95: fewer than three goals have been scored in three of England’s last five matches.

• Both teams to score – No – 1.45–1.50: England kept two clean sheets in the group; DR Congo failed to score against Colombia.

• England to win – 1.25–1.35: a basic option for accumulators, but the price is minimal.

• DR Congo individual total under 0.5 goals – 1.45–1.58: the Leopards managed just one shot on target against Colombia; England conceded only two goals in three rounds.

• Harry Kane to score – 1.65–1.75: two goals against Croatia (a penalty and a header from a corner) and scorer of one of the goals against Panama.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is close to balanced – the market is not expecting either a rout or a goalless stalemate.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 is a solid option for cautious bettors: England scored more than two goals in only one of their three group matches. Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 suits those expecting an early England goal and a reply from Wissa.

Handicap Prediction

England (-1.5) at 1.87 offers the best balance: the Three Lions won by a two-goal margin against both Croatia and Panama.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The market leans towards "No" (1.45–1.50) over "Yes" (2.55–2.65). England have conceded only two goals in three rounds – both against Croatia in the first match. DR Congo scored against Portugal and Uzbekistan but failed to find the net against Colombia. With odds of around 1.50 on "No", the bet looks logical for a 2:0 or 3:0 scenario.

Double Chance Prediction

1X at 1.03–1.06 is useless for a single bet. X2 at 3.45–3.82 is a long shot: DR Congo avoided defeat in two of their three group matches (a draw with Portugal and a win over Uzbekistan), but a repeat of that success, as against the Asian side, looks unlikely.

Individual Total Prediction

For this match bookmakers offer the following individual totals: England – 1.5 goals, DR Congo – 0.5 goals.

England Individual Total

England over 2 goals at 1.85 is an aggressive option: England have scored more than two goals in the group stage only once. Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is almost a given, considering their attacking potential.

DR Congo Individual Total

DR Congo over 0.5 goals at 2.28 is a risk: Yoane Wissa scored in two matches, but the Congolese did not score at all against Colombia.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely scenarios are comfortable England wins without an exchange of goals.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on Wednesday, 1 July 2026 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta at 17:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Adham Makhadmeh (Jordan) 

Matches – 15 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 3,9;

Matches with a straight red card – 2 out of 15;

Matches with a penalty – 4 out of 15.