Spain vs Belgium: prediction & betting odds 10 July 2026

Why Spain Are Favourites for the Match

The bookmakers consider Spain clear favourites: a win in normal time is priced at 1.65, reaching the semi-finals is 1.30 (around 73% probability), while a Belgium win is 5.50 and their qualification is 3.45. This advantage for the favourites is explained by several key factors.

• Spain have not conceded a single goal in five matches - the only team with such a record. Unai Simon has been outstanding in goal for La Furia, breaking Walter Zenga's record (six consecutive World Cup clean sheets).

• Oyarzabal (four goals) is in excellent form, while Merino (the winning goal against Portugal) and Baena (the winning goal against Uruguay) are ready to cover for him.

• Spain have not lost to Belgium in normal time since 1980.

• The Devils conceded in four of their five matches at the tournament.

Form and Line-up Spain

Spain reached the quarter-finals without a single defeat: the team won their group (a 0:0 draw with Cape Verde, wins over Saudi Arabia - 4:0 and Uruguay - 1:0), thrashed Austria in the round of 32 (3:0), and in the round of 16 struggled but deservedly got past Portugal (1:0; Merino's winning goal in the 91st minute). The team have reached the quarter-finals for the first time since 2010: at the previous two tournaments, the Spaniards were knocked out in the round of 16 after penalty shootouts (by Russia in 2018 and Morocco in 2022).

Key Numbers for Spain:

• Spain average 65.6% possession per game.

• Luis de la Fuente's team have taken 39 corners - only Canada have more (50).

• Spain have recorded five consecutive wins over Belgium, four of them clean sheets.

Probable Spain line-up

(4-2-3-1): Unai Simon - Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella - Pedri, Rodri - Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Alex Baena - Mikel Oyarzabal.

Form and Line-up Belgium

Belgium qualified from first place in the group: 1:1 against Egypt, 0:0 against Iran and 4:0 against New Zealand. But Rudi Garcia's team had a difficult start to the playoffs: in the round of 32, they just about edged past Senegal (3:2, ET). In the round of 16, however, the team thrashed the tournament hosts, the United States (4:1).

Key Numbers for Belgium:

• Belgium have scored 13 goals at the tournament - only France have more (14).

• The Belgians average 21.4 shots per game.

• In four of five World Cup matches, the Devils conceded at least one goal.

Probable Belgium line-up

(4-3-3): Thibaut Courtois - Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele, Maxim De Cuyper - Nicolas Raskin, Hans Vanaken, Youri Tielemans - Jeremy Doku, Charles De Ketelaere, Leandro Trossard.

Absentees: Amadou Onana (injury).

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 5%):

It is also worth separately considering the odds on Spain to reach the semi-finals (including extra time and penalties) - 1.30 (around 73%), which is noticeably higher than the probability of a win specifically in normal time and reflects Spain's solid margin for error in a long game.

Alternative Bets

• Double chance 1X (Spain not to lose) - 1.15: a basic option for accumulators, given Spain's clear advantage in class and the head-to-head history.

• Spain (-1) - 2.05: the most balanced option, as Luis de la Fuente's team are capable of winning by more than one goal.

• Over 2.5 goals - 1.80: a logical choice given the attacking potential of both teams and the vulnerability of Belgium's defence.

• Both teams to score - Yes - 1.80: Spain have not conceded, but against an attack like Belgium's, the clean-sheet run may end.

• Belgium, over 0.5 goals - 1.60: a Belgium goal is not the worst offer, given the quality of De Ketelaere and Lukaku.

Total Goals Prediction

Spain have scored in every match at the tournament since the goalless draw with Cape Verde, while Belgium have also scored in four of their five matches, with only a dull 0:0 against Iran.

Over 2.5 at 1.80 is the main option: Belgium's matches at this tournament average 3.6 goals, and Spain will face an opponent who will not shut up shop completely. Under 3.5 at 1.40 is a conservative alternative if Spain switch into energy-saving mode after a second goal.

Handicap Prediction

Spain (-1) at 2.05 is the most interesting option. If they win 2:0, 3:1 or 3:0, the bet wins. At 2:1 or 1:0, it is a push. Alternative: Spain Draw No Bet at 1.22 for accumulator players.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Yes is 1.85 (around 52% probability), No is 2.00 (around 48%). Spain have not conceded once at the tournament, which points towards No, but Belgium's attacking calibre (Lukaku, De Ketelaere) makes a Belgian goal a realistic scenario.

Double Chance Prediction

1X is an almost 100% option given the difference in class, but it is suitable mainly for accumulators because of the low odds. X2 at 2.30 is a bet on Belgium not losing in normal time (for those who believe in a repeat of the comeback against Senegal).

Individual Total Prediction

For this match, the bookmakers have set the following individual totals: Spain - 1.5 goals, Belgium - 0.5 goals.

Spain Individual Total

The bookmakers have little doubt that Spain will score, while at least two goals from La Roja is already a more likely outcome than just one.

Belgium Individual Total

As for Belgium, the bookmakers believe Rudi Garcia's team will score, but no more than once.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely scenarios:

2:1 is the baseline scenario: Spain settle the issue, but Belgium's attack scores a consolation goal. 1:0 is possible if Spain settle for a minimal advantage and continue to conserve energy, as in the match against Uruguay. 2:0 is possible if the Spanish defence withstands all Belgium's attacks and the team dominate going forward. 1:1 is possible if the teams exchange goals and the match goes to extra time.

When and Where to Watch

The match will start on Friday, 10 July 2026 at 20:00 BST at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, United States.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Michael Oliver (England) 

Matches – 9 (International matches, 2026);

Average fouls per match – 25;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4,5;

Matches with a straight red card – 1 out of 9;

Matches with a penalty – 1 out of 9.