Mexico vs England: prediction & betting odds 6 July 2026

Why England Are Narrow Match Favourites

Bookmakers consider England favourites, but only by a minimal margin: W2 is 2.45-2.60, the draw is 3.10, and a Mexico win is 3.10. The Three Lions to qualify is priced at 1.77. There are several reasons for this.

• Individual scoring output. Harry Kane has scored five goals in four matches, making him the tournament's third-highest scorer behind Mbappe and Messi.

• Knockout experience. England reached the quarter-finals in 2022 and the semi-finals in 2018.

• Squad depth. Tuchel has Kane, Bellingham, Saka, Rashford and Gordon in his squad. Mexico have the top-class Quinones, but Jimenez is too inconsistent, even though he has scored twice.

• Mexico's knockout problems. Before the current tournament, Mexico had not progressed beyond the first knockout round since 1986, suffering seven straight eliminations. At the last World Cup, they did not even get out of the group.

Form and Line-up Mexico

Mexico come into the round of 16 after a convincing 2:0 win over Ecuador in the round of 32 - the team's first step into the next round since 1986, when they hosted the tournament. Julian Quinones (22nd minute) and Raul Jimenez (31st) scored the goals. In the second half, the hosts confidently held on to the lead despite the opposition having 57% possession.

Quinones became the fifth Mexican player in history to score three goals at World Cups, and only the second to score three or more at one tournament after Luis Hernandez in 1998.

Key numbers for Mexico:

• The best defence of all teams at the tournament, with no goals conceded.

• In seven of their last nine matches, they have not gone over 2.5 goals.

• In their last 10 meetings with European national teams, they have four wins, four draws and two defeats.

Probable Mexico line-up (4-3-3): Raul Rangel - Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Johan Vasquez, Jesus Gallardo - Luis Romo, Erik Lira, Gilberto Mora - Roberto Alvarado, Raul Jimenez, Julian Quinones.

Absentees: -.

Form and Line-up England

England struggled past DR Congo in the round of 32 (2:1). In the match against the Congolese side, the team conceded as early as the seventh minute and only turned the game around in the second half: a Harry Kane brace in the 75th and 86th minutes after the drinks break.

Kane has scored five goals at the tournament and has drawn level with Just Fontaine (13) on the list of the top scorers in World Cup history. Both assists came from substitute Anthony Gordon. Jude Bellingham received a yellow card against DR Congo and risks missing the quarter-final if he gets another one, as accumulated cards are wiped after the quarter-finals.

Key numbers for England:

• England have allowed their opponents only 10 shots on target across four matches at the tournament.

• Against teams from the Caribbean, England have six wins and four draws in their last 10 meetings.

• In seven of their previous 10 matches, England have not gone over 2.5 goals.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford - Jed Spence, Ezri Konsa, Marc Guehi, Nico O'Reilly - Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson - Noni Madueke, Jude Bellingham, Marcus Rashford - Harry Kane.

Absentees: -.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~5%). Line: Mexico 3.10, draw 3.10, England 2.50.

The market gives England the edge, but does not consider them clear favourites: their probability of winning in regular time is below 50% because of the possibility of a draw.

Alternative Bets

• Both teams to score - No - 1.75: Mexico have not conceded in four matches.

• Double chance 1X (Mexico not to lose) - 1.50: the home factor and perfect form at the tournament.

• Mexico, over 0.5 goals - 1.50: Mexico have scored in every match at the tournament.

• Draw - 3.10: the two teams are evenly matched, and there have already been 23 draws in 82 matches at the tournament (more than 35%).

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is tilted towards the under - six of the teams' eight matches at the tournament have finished under 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 at 1.50 is the main choice. Mexico have not conceded in four matches, while England have kept clean sheets in two of their four games. Under 1.5 at 2.45 is an alternative for an extremely closed match.

Handicap Prediction

Mexico Draw No Bet at 2.20 is a risky but justified option given the home factor. England Draw No Bet at 1.65 is more conservative.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Yes is 2.10 (46% probability), No is 1.75 (59%). Mexico have not conceded a single goal in four matches - the best defence at the tournament. Harry Kane can be shut down, as happened in the game against Ghana (0:0) and in the first half against DR Congo, while England's other players look subdued in their finishing.

Double Chance Prediction

1X (Mexico not to lose) at 1.50 is an excellent option given the home factor. X2 (England not to lose) at 1.35 is a basic option for accumulators. The market prices the draw at around 31% probability, above the tournament average (27%).

Individual Total Prediction

For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals: Mexico - 0.5 goals, England - 1.5 goals.

Mexico Individual Total

Bookmakers think Mexico will score, but no more than one goal - the home factor and Quinones's form provide grounds for optimism.

England Individual Total

Bookmakers have little doubt that England will score, but two goals from the Three Lions is no guarantee.

Correct Score Prediction

0:0 is the most likely score, considering that Mexico have not conceded a single goal in four matches and England are finding goals difficult to come by. In addition, teams act as cautiously as possible in the round of 16. 1:0 to Mexico is possible if the hosts convert one of their counter-attacking chances and then shut the game down, as they did against South Korea. 1:0 to England is possible if the Three Lions find a goal from a set piece or a Mexican mistake, but fail to build on it against the best defence at the tournament. 1:1 is possible if Mexico concede first but quickly equalise thanks to home support and preserve the draw in regular time.

When and Where to Watch

The match will start on Monday, 6 July 2026 at the Azteca Stadium in Mexico City (Mexico) at 01:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Alireza Faghani (Australia) 

Matches – 15 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 21;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 3,9;

Matches with a straight red card – 2 out of 15;

Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 15.