France vs Sweden: prediction & betting odds 30 June 2026

Why France Are Favourites for the Match

Bookmakers regard the French as one of the main contenders for the title: the home win is offered at 1.25–1.32, the draw at 6.00–6.60 and Sweden’s success at 10.00–12.00.

• Nine points from nine possible in Group I — three wins with an aggregate score of 10:2.

• Kylian Mbappe scored four goals in the first two matches of the tournament and became the top scorer in the history of the France national team.

• In the last five head-to-head meetings, the French have won four times.

• The last meeting ended 4:2 in favour of France in the Nations League (2020).

• Sweden conceded five goals against the Netherlands in the group — one of the heaviest defeats at the tournament.

Form and Line-up France

France negotiated Group I perfectly: a win over Senegal (3:1), a thumping victory against Iraq (3:0) and a comfortable success against Norway (4:1). Didier Deschamps uses a 4-2-3-1 system with Mbappe on the left flank and Dembele on the right. Michael Olise has become the team’s main provider — his passes decided the matches against Senegal and Iraq. In defence William Saliba and Ibrahima Konate are in control, with Dayot Upamecano and Maxence Lacroix able to cover effectively. The back line has conceded only two goals in three matches — the seventh-best record at the tournament.

Key numbers for France:

• France have lost only 1 of their previous 17 World Cup matches.

• In 15 of their last 16 matches, the French have scored at least 2 goals.

• At the last two World Cups, Les Bleus reached the final, and in 2018 they lifted the trophy.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan — Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano, Maxence Lacroix, Theo Hernandez — Aurelien Tchouameni, Adrien Rabiot — Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue — Kylian Mbappe.

Absentees: Marcus Thuram, William Saliba (both doubtful).

Form and Line-up Sweden

Sweden under Graham Potter reached the play-offs by finishing third in Group F. A thumping win over Tunisia (5:1) was followed by a heavy defeat to the Netherlands (1:5), while a draw with Japan (1:1) secured a place in the round of 32. In attack the team relies on the partnership between Isak and Gyokeres, and in midfield on Elanga, who has scored twice in his last two appearances.

Key numbers for Sweden:

• Sweden have conceded in 14 matches in a row.

• In their last 13 games, the Tre Kronor have managed only 3 wins.

• Yasin Ayari and Anthony Elanga, with 2 goals each, are Sweden’s top scorers at this World Cup.

Probable line-up (3-4-1-2): Jakob Videl Zetterstrom — Gustav Lagerbielke, Victor Lindelof, Gabriel Gudmundsson — Alexander Bernhardsson, Yasin Ayari, Lukas Bergvall, Elliot Stroud — Anthony Elanga — Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres.

Absentees: Isaac Hien (doubtful).

Teams’ Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 5%). The average line: France 1.27, draw 6.30, Sweden 11.00.

After removing the margin, a France win is estimated at roughly 74.5%, a draw at 15% and a Sweden success at 10.5%. The market leaves almost no chance to the underdog, but the odds on the favourite are so low that for a single bet it makes more sense to look at handicaps and totals.

Alternative Bets

• Over 2.5 goals — 1.45–1.75: the six group matches involving these teams produced 26 goals.

• Both teams to score – Yes — 1.90–2.00: Sweden scored in every round, and France conceded against Senegal and Norway.

• France to win — 1.25–1.32: a basic option for accumulators, but the odds are minimal.

• France, over 2 team goals — 1.50–1.60: Les Bleus scored at least three times in all their group matches.

• Mbappe to score — 1.65–1.80: four goals in his first two games at the tournament.

Prediction for the Total

The totals line is tilted towards over — both teams were involved in high-scoring matches in the group stage.

Over 2.5 goals at 1.48 is a workable option: France scored 3–4 goals per match, and Sweden were involved in two games with six goals (twice 5:1). Under 3.5 at 1.65 is the conservative alternative if France shut up shop after going 2:0 or 3:0 up.

Prediction for the Handicap

A -1.5 handicap on France at 1.73 is the optimal balance between risk and odds: Les Bleus won all their group matches by a margin of 2 or more goals, while Sweden lost 1:5 to the Netherlands. A -2 handicap at 2.25 is for those expecting a rout similar to the Norway match (4:1).

Prediction for “both teams to score”

The market leans slightly towards "No" (1.80–1.95) over "Yes" (1.90–2.00). Sweden scored in every group match, and Isak and Gyokeres form a very dangerous counter-attacking duo. France, meanwhile, conceded two goals in three games — against Senegal and Norway. With odds of around 1.95 on "Yes", the bet looks interesting for those expecting a 3:1 or 2:1 scoreline, but the main scenario is French domination with a goalless second half after a comfortable lead is established.

Prediction for Double Chance

1X at 1.04–1.07 is almost useless for a single bet because of the tiny odds. X2 at 3.20–3.40 is a long shot for those who believe in a Swedish upset.

Prediction for Individual Totals

For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals: France — 1.5 goals, Sweden — 0.5 goals.

France Individual Total

The market expects 2–3 goals from the French. France, over 2 team goals at 1.52 is a decent option, and over 0.5 at 1.12 is almost a given.

Sweden Individual Total

Sweden, over 0.5 team goals at 1.85 is a coin toss: the Swedes scored in every round, but against the best defence in the tournament (two conceded in three matches) an opposition goal is far from guaranteed.

Prediction for Correct Score

The most likely scenarios are a comfortable France win with one reply from Sweden or a comfortable clean-sheet victory. France won the last head-to-head meeting 4:2 and regularly scored 3–4 goals in the group.

When and Where to Watch

The match will kick off on 1 July 2026 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford (USA) at 22:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Danny Makkelie (Netherlands) 

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2026);

Average fouls per match – 24;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 2,7;

Matches with a straight red card – 2 out of 8;

Matches with a penalty – 1 out of 8.