Germany vs Paraguay: prediction & betting odds 29 June 2026

Why Germany Are Favourites

• Germany are 10th in the FIFA ranking, while Paraguay were 41st in the official June ranking. The gap in class is large, especially in terms of player quality.

• Paraguay have no stable source of goals up front: Almiron and Enciso are stronger when running into space and linking play than as a constant focal point.

• Germany conceded in every group match, but Paraguay are not a team who regularly apply pressure and create chances in waves. Paraguay's individual total under 1.5 goals landed in all three group matches.

Form and Line-up Germany

Germany won Group E. The start was a rout of Curacao (7:1), followed by a win over Ivory Coast (2:1) and an early first place. In the final round, with no tournament need left, the team lost to Ecuador (1:2).

The game is built on ball control and quick combinations through the centre. Nagelsmann has a deep group of creators, so Germany open up even a compact block not only with crosses, but also with passes between the lines. The risk is clear - a high defensive line and space behind the defenders, especially after losing the ball in midfield.

There is a nuance in terms of availability. After Schlotterbeck's injury, the centre of defence is being reshaped again, while Nathaniel Brown is out with adductor problems. At the same time, Germany still have a big advantage in class and depth: even with Raum on the left and Rudiger in central defence, the back line looks stronger than Paraguay's attack.

Key numbers:

• 10 goals in three group matches is Germany's best figure at this stage and one of the strongest attacking starts of the tournament.

• The defeat to Ecuador ended Germany's run of 11 wins.

• The only head-to-head meeting at World Cups was in the 2002 round of 16: Germany advanced (1:0).

• Germany scored in all three group matches.

• Over 2.5 goals landed in all three of Germany's matches at the tournament.

• Germany conceded in all three group matches.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Manuel Neuer - Joshua Kimmich, Jonathan Tah, Antonio Rudiger, David Raum - Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic - Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz - Kai Havertz.

Absentees: Nico Schlotterbeck, Nathaniel Brown - injured.

Form and Line-up Paraguay

Paraguay finished third in Group D and, with four points, made it into the group of the best third-placed teams. First there was a heavy defeat to the United States (1:4), then a win over Turkey (1:0) and a draw with Australia (0:0).

Alfaro builds everything from defence: a compact block, discipline, a focus on counter-attacks and set pieces. That is a workable plan for survival, but not for sustained pressure. When Paraguay need to open up opponents themselves, chances become scarce.

Physically, the team have already played a tough match against Australia in a cautious mode and almost without the ball. The main squad problem before Germany is Diego Gomez's suspension for accumulated yellow cards. Miguel Almiron has served his suspension and can return, but without Gomez the first pass out of defence will still become slower.

Key numbers:

• In qualifying, Paraguay scored 14 goals and conceded 10 in 18 matches - this is a team who operate from defence.

• In South American qualifying, Paraguay had 10 clean sheets across 18 rounds.

• Under 2.5 goals landed in Paraguay's last two matches.

• Paraguay's individual total under 1.5 goals landed in all three group matches.

Probable line-up (5-3-2): Orlando Gill - Juan Jose Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Junior Alonso, Jose Canale, Alejandro Maidana - Andres Cubas, Damian Bobadilla, Matias Galarza - Miguel Almiron, Julio Enciso.

Absentees: Diego Gomez - suspended, Omar Alderete - doubtful.

Team Chances

Let us convert the average 1X2 line into probabilities and remove a margin of around 4.4%. On average across the table: Germany - 1.40, draw - 4.93, Paraguay - 8.00.

After removing the margin, Germany are almost at 69%, the draw is around 19%, and a Paraguay win is roughly 12%. That does not make a Germany win interesting at the price, but it strongly supports the idea against a goal from the visitors.

Alternative Bets

All options continue the same scenario - Germany pressure and a low ceiling for Paraguay's attack.

• Both teams to score - No (1.80-1.81): essentially the same calculation on Paraguay staying silent, but at lower odds than the main prediction.

• Germany, over 1.5 goals (1.50-1.53): a bet on the goals in the match coming specifically from the favourites.

• Paraguay, under 1.5 goals (1.14-1.19): a cautious option, but the price has already eaten up almost everything.

Total Goals Prediction

The total line is tilted upwards: the market expects at least three goals and keeps Over 2.5 around 1.74-1.76. That does not hurt our angle - what matters is that the goals come from Germany, not from the visitors.

Handicap Prediction

Germany have the edge on the handicap. Germany (0) is worth almost nothing, while Paraguay (0) is priced too high because the market does not believe in an even match for chances. We prefer not the handicap, but a clean sheet against the visitors: it fits Paraguay's attacking problems better.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

Here the market is already more on our side: No is priced at 1.80-1.81, while Yes is 2.00. That is logical for a match in which Germany should take the ball and Paraguay will be far from the opposition goal. Scores of 1:0, 2:0 and 3:0 in Germany's favour fit the scenario.

Double Chance Prediction

Double chance barely makes sense here as a standalone bet: Germany 1X is priced at 1.08, while Paraguay X2 is around 2.95-2.97, but it fits the selected scenario poorly. We do not need to prove that Paraguay will hold the match. We need them not to score.

Germany Individual Total Prediction

Germany's individual total over 1.5 goals looks like a logical continuation of the scenario. Paraguay know how to hold out, but against this amount of possession and quality between the lines, one conceded goal can quickly turn into two.

Paraguay Individual Total Prediction

The market sees the visitors quite sharply: Paraguay, under 1.5 goals is priced at 1.14-1.19, while Paraguay, over 1.5 goals is above 4.60. This is not the main market because of the low odds, but it is useful as confirmation of Paraguay's weak attack.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 2:0 to Germany: the favourites eventually break down the compact block, while Paraguay remain without a goal. A cautious alternative is 1:0 if Alfaro keeps the tempo low for a long time. A wider option is 3:0 if Germany score early and force the visitors to open up.

When and Where to Watch

The match will take place on 29 June 2026 at 21:30 BST at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, United States.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match

Jalal Jayed (Morocco) 

Matches – 14 (International matches, 2025 - 2026);

Average fouls per match – 29;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 3,4;

Matches with a straight red card – 1 out of 14;

Matches with a penalty – 5 out of 14.