Portugal vs Spain: prediction & betting odds 6 July 2026

Why Spain Are Match Favourites

Portugal would not be favourites against several other teams either, and hardly anyone can compare with Spain at all. After all, they are the third contender for the title.

• Spain have not conceded in any of their four matches, while Portugal have scored no more than once in two of their four.

• In the 21st century, Portugal have reached at least the quarter-final stage only twice in six attempts.

• Spain are the reigning European champions.

• Only Belgium (92) have had more shots than Spain (78).

• Spain have not lost in 34 matches, since March 2024.

Form and Line-up Portugal

Across the entire tournament, Portugal had a dominant advantage that was also reflected on the scoreboard in exactly one match - against Uzbekistan (5:0). But the Asian team conceded 11 goals in the group stage, so that shows the level of resistance. The same first knockout-round match left an ambiguous aftertaste. The referee ruled out three Croatian goals in the second half for offside, but only one of them was a clear offside.

Key numbers:

• Portugal are in the World Cup's top three for passing accuracy in the final third (81.7%), but Spain are still ahead of them (84.3%).

• Goalkeeper Diogo Costa ranks fourth for goals prevented (1.2).

• Seven of Portugal's eight matches this year have produced no more than three goals.

• In each of their four World Cup matches, Portugal have taken no more than five corners.

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Diogo Costa - Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes - Joao Neves, Vitinha - Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leao - Cristiano Ronaldo

Form and Line-up Spain

Despite the shock for which Spain were partly responsible alongside Cape Verde (0:0), there are few questions about the team. Yes, the away side still find it difficult to break down teams with such a packed and selfless defence, but in the other cases La Furia Roja won without conceding once. Luis de la Fuente's team, along with Mexico, remain an exception - they have not conceded once at the tournament. They have even made just one error leading to a dangerous shot. Discomfort in his leg prevented Nico Williams from playing in the previous match against Austria, but the head coach hopes the forward will shake it off.

Key numbers:

• Spain average 19.5 shots per match at the World Cup.

• Rodri leads the tournament for accurate passes (413).

• Spain's conversion rate is 10.26% - the third-lowest figure among teams already through to the round of 16. Spain have still not conceded at this tournament. The last team to score against them were Peru in a friendly match (3:1).

Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simon - Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsi, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella - Rodri, Pedri - Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Alex Baena - Mikel Oyarzabal

Absentees: Nico Williams (doubtful)

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (~4.9%). The average bookmakers' line looks as follows:

Even removing the margin did not make Spain's chances of winning in Alternative Bets

• Over 2.5 goals — 1.86: a low-scoring result is only a few percentage points more likely than three goals or more.

• Both teams to score — Yes — 1.75: the bookmakers do not believe that either team will leave the pitch without scoring in normal time.

• Spain Draw No Bet — 1.41: an option with insurance in case of a draw in normal time.

• Spain, over 1.5 goals — 1.91: a value offer - the probability of losing the stake is only around 50%.

Totals Prediction

The market is split in half. From these neighbours, we can expect either closed football or a goal feast.

Handicap Prediction

Portugal's minimal positive handicap can still be backed separately, while Spain (-1) is pointless even in an accumulator.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

The option Both teams to score — No is priced on average at around 2.00, because the main stars in both teams are concentrated in the attacking lines. However, it should not be ignored, as this bet landed in two of their four head-to-head meetings in the 2020s.

Double Chance Prediction

Double chance options that include a Spain win are priced significantly lower, but they are worth using primarily in an accumulator.

Team Total Prediction

If backing a team total, the best value on Portugal is to take either over or under 1, while for Spain the choice is 1.5 goals.

Portugal Team Total

Two goals for the nominal hosts are priced at only around a 33% probability, although Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva will try to disprove that.

Spain Team Total

Belief that Spain will score at least twice grew after they thrashed Austria in the first knockout round (3:0). Besides, Lamine Yamal has not yet had his big say.

Correct Score Prediction

Bookmakers accompany the main correct-score bets with at least one Spain goal. The option that Portugal fail to score appears much more often. Three of the four most popular scores suggest that Under 2.5 goals will land.

When and Where to Watch

The match will start on Monday, 6 July 2026, at 20:00 BST at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington. 

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Anthony Taylor (England) 

Matches – 8 (International matches, 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 4,7;

Matches with a straight red card – 2 out of 8;

Matches with a penalty – 1 out of 8.