France vs England: prediction & betting odds 18 July 2026

Why France are favourites for the match

The difference in the prices is small, but bookmakers have slightly more faith in France despite the nature of this match.

• France lead the tournament for expected goals (14.6) and shots on target per game (7.1) — the team's attacking potential remains at its peak even after the lost semi-final.

• England have conceded in every World Cup knockout match. They have kept a clean sheet at the tournament in only two games, both in the group stage.

• France will be fresher in the bronze-medal match. Their lost semi-final against Spain took place a day earlier than England's meeting with Argentina.

• France lead the tournament for big chances (27). England are second (26): the attacking potential is comparable, but the favourites have a more varied attacking group.

Form and Line-up France

Before losing to Spain (0:2) in the semi-final, Les Bleus looked like the main favourites for the 2026 World Cup. On the way to their previous game, Deschamps' team failed to score 2+ goals only in the controversial Round of 16 match against Paraguay (1:0), where the referee let their opponents get away with a lot. Even then, France won every time in normal time, leaving minimal intrigue for the final stretch. Against Spain, France accumulated only 0.31 xG and did not create a single clear-cut chance. On the other hand, there were promising attacks — just think of the defender's clearance inside the box when Mbappe was already striking the ball from close range.

France key numbers:

• Lead the 2026 World Cup for xG (14.60), big chances (27) and average shots on target per 90 minutes (7.1).

• France rank first at the tournament for big chances missed (19).

• Mbappe (8+3) and Dembele (5+2) are in the top six scorers. Only Messi (8+4) is above Kylian for goals + assists.

Probable France line-up (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan — Theo Hernandez, Maxence Lacroix, Dayot Upamecano, Jules Kounde — Adrien Rabiot, Aurelien Tchouameni — Bradley Barcola, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele — Kylian Mbappe.

Absentees: William Saliba (injury).

Form and Line-up England

England have had plenty of problems throughout the knockout stage. Tuchel's team trailed against DR Congo (2:1) and Norway (2:1 after extra time), while against Mexico (3:2) England heroically held on after Jarell Quansah's sending-off — they played almost 40 minutes with 10 men. Against Argentina in the semi-final (1:2), Kane and company collapsed late on. Pickford bailed out his team-mates with three saves, but the South Americans were persistent, scoring twice in seven minutes.

England key numbers:

• Created 26 big chances — only France managed more (27).

• Over 2.5 goals and BTTS landed in all four knockout matches.

• Kane and Bellingham have combined for 12+2 between them. No one else for England has scored more than one goal.

Probable England line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford — Djed Spence, Marc Guehi, John Stones, Reece James — Elliot Anderson, Declan Rice — Anthony Gordon, Jude Bellingham, Morgan Rogers — Harry Kane.

Absentees: Jordan Henderson (injury).

Team chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin (around 5%). The average line: France — 1.91, draw — 3.92, England — 3.92.

After removing the margin, France's chances are estimated at around 51%, with the draw and an England win at 25% for each outcome. The match looks close despite France's formal status as favourites.

Alternative bets

• France Draw No Bet — 1.48: a win means the bet wins, a draw means a stake refund, a sensible safety net with the favourites holding a slight edge.

• Both teams to score - Yes — 1.47: both national teams are among the tournament leaders for attacking metrics, and a goals scenario looks highly likely.

• Over 2.5 goals — 1.55: both teams' attacking style and the lack of tournament pressure increase the chances of a high-scoring game.

• Double chance 1X (France not to lose) — 1.28: a comfortable option based on the favourites' status, taking into account the unpredictability of third-place matches.

Total prediction

The line is clearly tilted towards a high-scoring game — both teams are in the tournament's top three attacks, while the absence of serious tournament pressure traditionally frees players up in matches of this kind. Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 looks like a logical base position, but a slightly higher option is also interesting.

Handicap prediction

France Draw No Bet at 1.43 is the base position given their status as favourites. England handicap (+1) at 1.60 is a comfortable safety net, considering the teams' equal attacking metrics and the open nature of the game.

Both teams to score prediction

There is a clear edge for the Yes option: 1.47 against 2.85 for No. Both national teams are among the tournament leaders for chances created, while the factor of losing a semi-final may open the way for attacking football from both sides. Both teams to score - Yes looks like a logical choice for this meeting.

Double chance prediction

1X (France not to lose) at 1.28 is the base option given their status as favourites. X2 (England not to lose) at 1.97 is an attractive price considering the teams' equal chances by margin-free probabilities.

Team total prediction

France team total (1.5) at 1.62, against 2.30 on under, shows bookmakers expect a productive game from the tournament leaders for shots on target even before considering the opposition's numbers.

France team total

England team total

England's team total looks more modest than France's numbers, but still optimistic: over 1 is priced at 1.70, reflecting the team's high attacking potential after a high-scoring tournament.

Correct score prediction

The most likely outcome in the bookmakers' line is a 1:1 draw at 7.00, which makes sense for a match between teams with almost equal chances. Among the winning scenarios, a narrow France victory stands out: 2:1 at 8.00 and 1:0 at 11.0.

When and where to watch

The match will kick off at 22:00 BST on 18 July 2026 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Jesús Valenzuela (Venezuela)

Matches – 7 (International matches, 2026);

Average fouls per match – 23;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 3;

Matches with red cards – 2 out of 7;

Matches with penalties – 1 out of 7.