Colombia vs Ghana: prediction & betting odds 4 July 2026

Why Colombia Are Favourites

• The line makes Colombia clear favourites: their win is around 1.50-1.55, while a straight Ghana victory is priced at 6.50-8.00.

• After removing the margin, the probability that Colombia do not lose in regular time is above 85%.

• Colombia came through Group K unbeaten: seven points, five goals scored and only one conceded.

• The gap in chance quality is noticeable: 6.05 xG and 59 shots for Colombia against 2.86 xG and 15 shots for Ghana in the group stage.

• In the rankings, Colombia are 13th and Ghana are 73rd.

Colombia Form and Condition

Colombia advanced from Group K in first place and unbeaten. They began by beating Uzbekistan (3:1), then edged DR Congo (1:0), before earning a goalless draw with Portugal (0:0) in the final round. Seven points, first place and composed football.

The game is built on possession, the flanks and work between the lines. James Rodriguez remains the chief playmaker, Luis Diaz provides pace and one-on-one ability on the left, while Munoz gets so high that he regularly ends up in the opposition box. The main risk is finishing: there are plenty of chances, but the match against Portugal was a reminder that Colombia do not always turn pressure into goals quickly.

There are no major freshness concerns. Lorenzo was able to distribute minutes in the group, and the match against Portugal was intense but did not involve unnecessary chasing of the game. For the knockout stage, that is an important plus: Colombia can play with control and patiently push Ghana back towards their box.

Key numbers:

• 59 shots, 19 shots on target and 6.05 xG - the best attacking volume in the group.

• Colombia have not conceded in their last 2 matches.

• Under 2.5 landed in 2 of Colombia's 3 matches.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Camilo Vargas - Daniel Munoz, Davinson Sanchez, Jhon Lucumi, Johan Mojica - Jefferson Lerma, Richard Rios, James Rodriguez - Jhon Arias, Jhon Cordoba, Luis Diaz.

Absentees: Luis Javier Suarez - doubtful.

Ghana Form and Condition

Ghana reached the playoffs thanks to character rather than eye-catching football. A win over Panama (1:0), a goalless draw with England (0:0) and a defeat to Croatia (1:2) brought four points and third place in Group L. That was enough to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

Carlos Queiroz has built the team from the back. Without the ball, Ghana sit deep, close the centre and wait for a mistake, then break forward quickly and with few players. The plan relies on Semenyo, Williams, Jordan Ayew and set pieces. The main problem is the absence of a player who can hold the ball for long periods and develop attacks under pressure.

Ghana's freshness is a concern. They spent all three group matches under a heavy defensive workload, and their bench is shorter than Colombia's. On top of that, there are personnel losses among key players and a question over Semenyo's condition after the match against Croatia. Motivation, however, is strong: Ghana have reached the World Cup playoffs for the first time since 2010.

Key numbers:

• 2.86 xG, 15 shots and 4 shots on target in the group stage.

• Ghana did not score more than 1 goal in any group match.

• Both teams to score - No landed in 2 of Ghana's 3 matches.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Benjamin Asare - Marvin Senaya, Jonas Adjetey, Jerome Opoku, Gideon Mensah - Caleb Yirenkyi, Thomas Partey, Kwasi Sibo - Inaki Williams, Jordan Ayew, Brandon Thomas-Asante.

Absentees: Antoine Semenyo - doubtful.

Teams' Chances

Let us convert the average odds into probabilities and remove the margin. The average line: Colombia - 1.52, draw - 4.01, Ghana - 7.01.

After removing the margin, Colombia's chances of winning are roughly 63%, with about another 24% on the draw. The straight outcome is priced weakly, so the bet shifts towards the goal margin: with such an advantage for the favourite, scores with a one- or two-goal margin take the main share of probable Colombia wins.

Alternative Bets

• Colombia, over 1.5 goals (1.82): for a scenario in which the favourite finishes off Ghana not with one goal, but with two.

• Under 2.5 goals (1.62): a closed game without a shootout, especially if Colombia score first and then close up defensively.

• Both teams to score - No (1.61): Ghana create little in positional attacks and do not score much.

• Colombia Draw No Bet (1.16): a very cautious option, but the odds are too low for the main prediction.

• Colombia (-1.5) (2.49): close to our idea, but it does not cover a narrow win for the favourite.

Total Goals Prediction

The total line is shifted towards the under. Colombia have a lot of possession and take plenty of shots, but they do not have to speed the match up after taking the lead, while Ghana lower the tempo themselves. That helps the main bet: for a win by one or two goals, scores of 1:0, 2:0, 2:1 and 3:1 are enough.

The handicap shows how big Colombia's advantage is. Colombia (0) is almost negligible, while (-1.5) already requires a win by at least two goals. So the handicap works as a guide to the side, but the main bet captures the required corridor better.

Both teams to score - No fits the main idea better than Yes. Ghana can hold out for a long time, but their attack depends too much on rare transitions. Colombia conceded only one goal in the group and kept clean sheets in their last two matches. For a bet on the favourite to win by one or two goals, 1:0 and 2:0 fit better than an exchange of goals.

Double Chance Prediction

Double chance is the most predictable part of the picture. Colombia 1X has almost no value on its own, but it shows well how the market views the risk of a favourite's slip-up. For the goal-margin bet, this is background rather than a replacement.

For Colombia, the market expects at least one goal and considers a second quite likely. For Ghana, the situation is the opposite: two goals for the visitors are priced high. This again points to a favourite's win - not necessarily a big one, but with a reasonable chance of a second Colombia goal.

Colombia Individual Total

Ghana Individual Total

Correct Score Prediction

The most logical score is 1:0 to Colombia: the favourite eventually gets the job done, but without an abundance of goals. Close behind are 2:0 and 2:1, if Colombia add after the break or Ghana do manage to catch one transition. All these options work for the main bet.

The match will take place on 4 July 2026 at 02:30 BST at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, USA.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match 

Clément Turpin (France) 

Matches – 7 (International matches, 2026);

Average fouls per match – 22;

Average yellow/red cards per match (including second yellows) – 2,4;

Matches with a straight red card – 3 out of 7;

Matches with a penalty – 3 out of 7.