South Africa vs Canada: prediction & betting odds 28 June 2026

Form and Line-up Canada

Canada approach the round of 32 after a bright but uneven group stage. Against Bosnia (1:1), the team conceded an early goal but earned their first World Cup point through Kyle Larin's efforts. In the next round, Qatar were thrashed (6:0), although the team lost Ismael Kone for the rest of the tournament. In the final match, Marsch's side played on level terms with Switzerland, but only one of seven shots on target found the net - the result was a defeat (1:2) and second place in the group.

Key numbers for Canada:

• They have scored in five consecutive matches.

• Canada have not won any of their last six matches against African national teams - three draws and three defeats.

• At World Cups, Canada have one win, one draw and seven defeats in their entire history.

Probable Canada line-up (4-4-2): Maxime Crepeau - Alistair Johnston, Luc de Fougerolles, Derek Cornelius, Richie Laryea - Tajon Buchanan, Stephen Eustaquio, Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Ali Ahmed - Jonathan David, Kyle Larin.

Absentees: Ismael Kone (injury, out for the rest of the World Cup), Alphonso Davies, Alfie Jones (both doubtful).

Form and Line-up South Africa

South Africa produced the first real shock of the 2026 World Cup, beating South Korea (1:0) and reaching the knockout stage for the first time in their history. The team began with a defeat to Mexico (0:2), then shared the points with Czechia (1:1), before beating South Korea in the decisive match thanks to a goal from Thapelo Maseko.

Despite scoring two goals in the group stage, South Africa performed reasonably well in attack - 33 shots, 10 of them on target, and an average of 0.85 xG.

Key numbers for South Africa:

• They have not gone over 2.5 goals in five consecutive matches.

• South Africa have beaten North American national teams only once in their last eight matches - a 1:0 win over Costa Rica in 2015, with four draws and three defeats.

• They have lost only four times in 12 World Cup matches.

Probable South Africa line-up (4-2-3-1): Ronwen Williams - Khuliso Mudau, Ime Okon, Mbekezeli Mbokazi, Aubrey Modiba - Sphephelo Sithole, Thalente Mbatha - Thapelo Maseko, Teboho Mokoena, Oswin Appollis - Evidence Makgopa.

Absentees: Themba Zwane (suspended).

Why Canada Are Match Favourites

Bookmakers consider Canada favourites: Canada to win is priced at 1.68-1.75, the draw at 3.45-3.80, and South Africa to win at 4.80-5.30. 

• Canada are 30th in the FIFA rankings, while South Africa are 60th.
• Canada's squad is valued at around 200 million euros, while South Africa's squad is four times cheaper.
• Canada had 21 shots on target in three matches compared with South Africa's 10.
• Canada scored eight goals in the group stage, while South Africa scored only two.
• Canada have top-level players in David, Davies and Larin, while South Africa have none of that calibre.

Team Chances

Let us convert the odds into probabilities and remove the built-in margin, around 5%. The averaged line is: Canada 1.70, draw 3.55, South Africa 5.10.

After removing the margin, Canada's win probability is estimated at around 55%, the draw at 26%, and South Africa's success at 18%. The market considers Canada favourites but recognises that South Africa are capable of at least holding on for a draw.

Alternative Bets

• X2 (South Africa to avoid defeat) - 2.05-2.20: a bet based on South Africa rarely losing at World Cups, with four defeats in 12 matches.
• Both Teams to Score - Yes - 2.00: Canada scored in three World Cup matches, South Africa in two, but the stakes are higher in the knockout stage.
• Over 2.5 goals - 2.00-2.10: Canada play attacking football, and South Africa can hit back on the counter.
• Under 2.5 goals - 1.70-1.85: if South Africa sit deep again, there may be few goals.
• Jonathan David to score - 2.50-2.70: Canada's main attacking hope and the second-most expensive player in the squad after Davies, he scored three times against Qatar and was active in every match.

Total Goals Prediction

The totals line is tilted towards the under: Under 2.5 is priced at 1.70-1.85, while Over 2.5 is 2.00-2.10. The market expects Canada to score a couple of goals and then sit deep, while South Africa, who have scored only twice, will be unable to do anything in attack.

Under 2.5 at 1.80 is a workable option: Canada attack a lot and create chances, while South Africa have scored only one goal from open play, with their second coming from the penalty spot.

Handicap Prediction

South Africa (+1) is the most balanced position. A win or draw means a winning bet, while a one-goal defeat means a push. South Africa Draw No Bet is risky, as Canada could settle everything in normal time.

South Africa (+1) at 1.52 is an attractive option: Canada are objectively stronger, but in the knockout stage South Africa are unlikely to make many costly errors.

Both Teams to Score Prediction

In the Both Teams to Score market, there is a slight lean towards No: goals for both teams are priced at 1.95-2.05, compared with No at 1.70-1.80. Bookmakers doubt that South Africa will break down Canada's defence.

Canada allowed only seven shots on target in three group matches, and against modest opponents they should play reliably, given South Africa scored only two goals in the group.

Double Chance Prediction

The X2 option (Canada to avoid defeat) is the most conservative route at 1.15-1.20. The 12 option (either team to win) at 1.25-1.30 is for those who do not believe in a draw. 1X (South Africa to avoid defeat) is priced at 1.90-2.20.

X2 is the basic option for accumulators, given Canada's class and their ability to avoid defeat against opponents of South Africa's level.

Individual Totals

For this match, bookmakers have set the following individual totals: Canada - 1.5 goals, South Africa - 0.5 goals.

Canada Individual Total

Bookmakers expect Canada to score 1-2 goals. There are also additional options.

South Africa Individual Total

As for South Africa, bookmakers believe this team are highly likely not to score. One goal would already be a success, and more would be a sensation.

South Africa under 1.5 goals at 1.20 is one of the most reliable markets. South Africa scored only two goals in three matches, and against Canada it will be difficult for them to score twice.

Correct Score Prediction

The most likely score is 2:0 in Canada's favour: Canada will score twice, while South Africa will not break down their defence. The alternative is a 1:0 win for Canada if South Africa defend reliably. A 1:1 result is possible if South Africa repeat the Czechia scenario and hold on for a draw.

When and Where to Watch

The match will start on Sunday, 28 June, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, USA, at 20:00 BST.

Live broadcasts of World Cup matches in the UK: BBC Sport and ITV.

Who will referee the match

João Pinheiro (Portugal)

Matches – 9 (International matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.1;
Matches with a red card – 4 out of 9;
Matches with a penalty – 5 out of 9.